@TechReport{MarengoCPNBTMSCSCDPC:2001:EnSiIn,
               author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de 
                         Albuquerque and Prakki, Satyamurty and Nobre, Carlos Afonso and 
                         Bonatti, Jos{\'e} Paulo and Trosnikov, Igor and Manzi, Antonio 
                         Ocimar and Sampaio, Gilvan and Camargo J{\'u}nior, H{\'e}lio and 
                         Sanches, Marcos Barbosa and Cunningham, Chrstopher Alexander 
                         Castro and D'Almeida, Cassiano and Pezzi, Luciano Ponci and 
                         Calbete, Nuri Oyamburo",
                title = "Ensemble simulation of interanual climate variability using the 
                         CPTEC/COLA astmopheric model",
          institution = "INPE",
                 year = "2001",
                 type = "RPQ",
               number = "INPE-8135-RPQ/717",
              address = "Sao Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
             keywords = "clima, variabilidade, modelos de clima, simulacao, temperatura da 
                         superficie do mar, modelos de circulacao geral atmosf{\'e}rica, 
                         climate, variability, climate models, simulation, sea surface 
                         temperature, atmospheric general circulation models.",
             abstract = "A variabilidade clim{\'a}tica interanual do MCG atmosf{\'e}rico 
                         do CPTEC/COLA {\'e} avaliada para diversas regi{\~o}es dos 
                         tr{\'o}picos e extratr{\'o}picos. A avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o foi 
                         feita para o per{\'{\i}}odo 1982-91 com uma rodada de 9 membros 
                         do modelo for{\c{c}}ado pelas anomalias de temperatura da 
                         superf{\'{\i}}cie (TSM)do mar observadas de todo o globo. 0 
                         Brier Skill Score {\'e} usado para avaliar a 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o simulada pelo modelo para diversas 
                         regi{\~o}es da Am{\'e}rica do Sul, {\'A}frica e {\'A}sia 
                         durante o pico de suas esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es chuvosas. A 
                         variabilidade clim{\'a}tica interanual no Nordeste do Brasil, 
                         Amaz{\^o}nia, e sul da Argentina-Uruguai e em menor grau para a 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o para o Sahel e leste da {\'A}frica foram 
                         bem simuladas pelo modelo. O modelo exibe menor skill quando 
                         reproduz a variabilidade interanual da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         nas regi{\~o}es das mon{\c{c}}{\~o}es do globo e sul da 
                         {\'A}frica, indicando que a simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         varia{\c{c}}{\~o}es interanuais do clima nestas regi{\~o}es 
                         ainda s{\~a}o problem{\'a}ticas, possivelmente devido ao efeito 
                         de feedback da umidade do solo e da neve, que indicaria o 
                         importante papel da variabilidade clim{\'a}tica interna nestas 
                         regi{\~o}es, al{\'e}m da for{\c{c}}ante externa SST na 
                         variabilidade clim{\'a}tica. 0 modelo captura bem os conhecidos 
                         sinais das anomalias de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e 
                         circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o do El Ni¤o de 1982-83, indicando sua 
                         sensibilidade a uma forte for{\c{c}}ante externa, enquanto que em 
                         anos normais, a variabilidade clim{\'a}tica interna pode afetar a 
                         previsibilidade do clima em algumas regi{\~o}es, especialmente as 
                         {\'a}reas de mon{\c{c}}{\~o}es do globo. ABSTRACT: The 
                         interannual climate variability of the CPTEC/COLA Atmospheric GCM 
                         is assessed for several regions of the tropics and extratropics. 
                         The evaluation is made for the period 1982-91 for an ensemble run 
                         of 9 realizations of the model forced by observed global sea 
                         surface temperature (SST)anomalies. The Brier Skill Score is used 
                         to assess the precipitation simulated by the model for several 
                         regions of South America, Africa and Asia during the peak of their 
                         rainy seasons. Interannual climate variability in Northeast 
                         Brazil, Amazonia, and southern Argentina-Uruguay and to a lesser 
                         degree for Sahel and Eastern Africa rainfall are well simulated by 
                         the model. The model exhibits lower skill in reproducing 
                         interannual rainfall variability in the monsoon regions of world 
                         and southern Africa, indicating that simulation on interannual 
                         variations of climate in those regions still remains problematic, 
                         possibly due to the effect of land-surface moisture and snow 
                         feedbacks that would indicate the important role of internal 
                         climate variability in those regions, besides the SST external 
                         forcing. The model captures the well known signatures of rainfall 
                         and circulation anomalies of El Ni¤o 1982-83, indicating its 
                         sensitivity to strong external forcing, while in normal years, the 
                         internal climate variability can affect the predictability of 
                         climate in some regions, especially the monsoon areas of the 
                         world.",
                label = "6060",
                pages = "77",
                  ibi = "6qtX3pFwXQZ3r59YCT/H37FM",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/6qtX3pFwXQZ3r59YCT/H37FM",
           targetfile = "INPE-8135.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "12 maio 2024"
}